In Miami, a team of 10 forecasters from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) produce detailed forecasts predicting the path and intensity of emerging storms.Īt any given moment, two of these forecasters are on duty, working eight-hour shifts. The European model, developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is recognized as the most accurate. This mass of data is then made available to all global weather services, feeding hundreds of forecasting models.
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One of them, Suomi NPP, has its instruments focused on Dorian and gives information on its structure and strength, the temperature at the top of the clouds and the volume of rain.
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space agency has a number of satellites oriented toward the earth. Such field data is supplemented by information from above that is gathered via satellites and NASA. Buoys and weather balloons can also be scattered before and during the hurricane. They record temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speeds, and also drop probes that take measurements down to the surface of the ocean. On Friday, for example, seven flights by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the US Air Force with aircraft known as "hurricane hunters" were planned in and around Dorian. The priority is to collect as much information as possible about the hurricane itself, which is mainly done by sending planes into the storm - rough missions flown by specialized pilots. weather services with powerful forecasting tools. But this year, because of the coronavirus pandemic, the WMO held its annual meeting his year by video conference, and won't make decisions about which names will be retired until next year.The path of Hurricane Dorian, which is currently over the Atlantic and heading for the state of Florida, is closely monitored by U.S. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which maintains the list of names assigned to hurricanes, routinely retires the names of the most devastating storms. The name Dorian may eventually be retired. More than 29-thousand people left homeless on Abaco and Grand Bahama Island and total damage from Dorian was estimated at $3.4 billion.ĭorian was the strongest hurricane in modern records to make landfall in the Bahamas. Although some models and the official NHC forecast indicated Dorian's forward motion would slow as it neared the Bahamas, none predicted the storm would stall there, pounding Great Abaco for several hours with intense winds and subjecting it to tropical storm force winds for three days. None of the models anticipated Dorian would strengthen into a catastrophic Category 5 storm with sustained wind speeds as high as 185 miles per hour. Where forecasters and the computer models fell short was predicting Dorian's intensity. Graham said, "That means less interaction with land, warm water (and) more time to get geared up and stronger and eventually reach Category 5 strength before reaching the northwestern Bahamas."Īfter the formation stage, the NHC report said forecasters mostly got the storm's track right.
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The surprise came when, as Dorian formed, its track shifted to the right. Another showed it heading toward Florida. The head of the National Hurricane Center, Ken Graham said, "Dorian's forecast was extremely difficult because we were tracking three centers." One early track for Dorian had it crossing over Hispaniola where high mountains were expected to tear the storm apart. Another model, the GFS, predicted it would form much further east.Īs it began to take shape, forecasters were unable to determine where the storm's center would be. The European computer model, the one that's been most reliable in recent years, failed to predict its formation. Dorian began as a small disturbance in an area in the Caribbean with dry air, which tends to suppress hurricane formation. The verdict? Meteorologists did not do a good job predicting Dorian's formation. Hurricane Dorian caused catastrophic damage to islands in the Northern Bahamas, killing more than 200 people and causing billions of dollars in damage.Ī new report from the National Hurricane Center studied the storm's formation and development and how well meteorologists did predicting its track and intensity. Hurricane forecasters and the models they depend on failed to anticipate the strength and impact of last year's deadliest storm.